According to the Hongkong news agency reported that in the past three or four months, the price of cobalt has nearly doubled. With the price of cobalt futures rose gangster Ge Weidong comeback, is aimed at the new energy automotive battery materials - cobalt.
The fund manager of the global stockpile
In the past three or four months, cobalt prices have nearly doubled. Many brokerage institutions almost unanimously agreed that the price of cobalt will rise further. There are too many factors to support the price increase, scarcity, tight supply and demand, oligarchs control, easy to hype small varieties, as well as the current situation in Congo".
Global electric vehicle manufacturers are scrambling to hoard battery raw materials - cobalt. According to the survey, the cobalt price soaring at the same time, the global large fund companies have started a global shopping spree, including the Swiss investment (PalaInvestment), chaotic investment and Ge Weidong. It is estimated that a total of 6000 tons of their stockpile of cobalt, accounting for about 17% of the world's total output, the market price of about $280 million.
Large fund companies bet on new energy vehicles demand will be greatly exceeded market expectations, as the raw material of cobalt prices will rise. According to the latest data consulting firm CRU, the world's new energy vehicles in 2020 three yuan battery cobalt demand will reach 35 thousand and 600 tons of metal equivalent, compared to 2015 growth of 10 times, the demand for the entire cobalt will reach about 150 thousand tons. 2015 global supply of cobalt raw material is about 110 thousand tons of metal, even at the supply side of the annual growth rate of 7%, the supply and demand gap is still huge.
An important reason for the rise is that, compared with the rapid growth of demand, the elasticity of cobalt production is quite limited. In the past few years, the traditional supplier Glencore, cobalt resources, Free Port Eurasia appeared the output and phenomenon in different degrees. In addition, affected by the impact of child labor conditions and mining conditions, accounting for 50% of the global supply of cobalt, Congo gold also shut down manual mines, resulting in a reduction of about 10 thousand tons of supply.
Starting in November last year, cobalt prices have risen 50% to $21 / pound, the future may rise further. Cobalt price rose to $50 / pound in the highest peak in, and then fell into the abyss all the way to the lowest in 2015 $10 / pound.
Glencore (Glencore) group CEOIvanGlasenberg said "in the future there will be a greater demand for cobalt". Glencore to control the global market of about 30% yield of cobalt. The cobalt price rose $1 each, Glencore's $55 million profit.
But there are also traders worry, because more than half of the world's cobalt ore are used to make the new energy automotive battery, cobalt market is very limited, the fund company is difficult to sell a cobalt profit, but the release of new capacity will soon hold down prices.
China echao cobalt
Since China's Cobalt reserves of only 80 thousand tons, accounting for about 1.1% of global reserves, good prospects for the future price of cobalt hedge funds had to buy spot. Although the London futures trading all cobalt price contracts (LME cobalt), but trading volume is very small.
The lithium battery industry is the largest application field of cobalt, announced subsidies for new energy vehicles in the new country, in order to obtain high subsidies, the car factory on the energy density of the battery requirements increase, three Yuan line quickly popular, the short term lead battery makers to increase the nickel and cobalt three yuan in basic small metal materials demand.
Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2025, the lithium battery industry Chinese demand for cobalt will be doubled.
In addition, cobalt resource concentration is very high, the world's top six producers of cobalt in the global total output accounted for more than 60% giants have strong pricing power. And because cobalt is a small metal, the market speculation easier. Africa and Congo (gold) is the richest country in the world cobalt ore reserves, up to 3 million 400 thousand tons. Control point of view, China's Cobalt reserves of only 80 thousand tons, accounting for about 1.1% of global reserves. This domestic scarcity of metals is easy to be speculation.
"Cobalt this product is special, not sensitive to price, is whether your price rose to high, the supply can not be increased quickly, of course, if rose to a certain extent, the downstream enterprises can not afford it, need it, that is another story." Changjiang futures researcher said a metal.