Since the beginning of the year, cobalt prices continued to surge affecting the entire lithium battery industry.
Data show that in March 20, 2017, the reference price of cobalt metal is 379 thousand yuan / ton, four months ago, in October 22, 2016, the price of metal cobalt in the range of about $220 thousand / ton, rose more than 70%.
"The rising price of cobalt has its inevitability, is the main supply side (storage), tighten the demand side (stimulating the development of new energy vehicles), social hot money sought at home and abroad, large sell result of resonance."
The cobalt industry branch secretary Xu Aidong
In March 21st, Soochow securities, engineering production and research of new energy automotive industry investment strategy will be held in Shenzhen Futian brother horse Polo day hotel, cobalt industry branch secretary Xu Aidong entitled "analysis of supply and demand in 2017 China cobalt Market theme said in a speech.
Supply side tightening
From raw material supply point of view, the supply of short-term tightening is the direct cause of this round of cobalt prices rise.
Xu Aidong given data show that in 2016 the world's total cobalt mine production 106 thousand and 800 tons, down by 5.3%. 56% of the total output of cobalt from copper mine, the nickel ore from the mine, the supply of passive cobalt, cobalt and nickel prices as well as the progress of the construction of the new project schedule also affects the potential supply of cobalt.
Supply in the future, in addition to the 2017 Baoqi million under the FEZA project of 4000 tons of cobalt raw material will be full production, CO production accounted for 62.1% of the global Congo (DRC) no other new capacity, increase production to rely on the existing expansion projects will Katanga plan in the two quarter of 2017 after production, but it will be postponed to 2018. The supply of raw materials, the pattern will not change much.
Corresponding to the decrease in the supply of production is more optimistic about the market consumer expectations. This is also a big push to promote the price of cobalt.
According to statistics, in 2016 the global co consumption of about 103 thousand and 800 tons, an increase of 4.3%, by planning the development of new energy vehicles and three yuan subsidy premium effect with cobalt battery, 57.7% battery, 15.4% high temperature alloy, hard alloy and hardfacing alloy is 10.8%, the other 16.1%.
Xu Aidong expects global cobalt consumption in 2017 was 110 thousand tons, an increase of 6%. From 2015 to 2020, the average annual consumption growth rate of cobalt was 8.4%, in 2020 the global cobalt consumption will reach 15-16 million tons, of which the proportion of the battery industry will reach 65.5%.
In 2016, China's Cobalt consumption level of about 46 thousand tons, an increase of 4.2%, of which the battery material consumption is about 36 thousand and 700 tons, lithium cobalt acid accounted for about $78.4%, accounting for three yuan, an increase of 6.1%. China cobalt consumption in 2017 is expected to be 50 thousand tons, an increase of 8.7%.
Accordingly, the supply and demand has emerged and the gap is expected to accelerate the simultaneous emergence of cobalt prices.
The social capital sought after, both at home and abroad sell large resonance
In addition to the tension between supply and demand, and sell large hot money sought in this round of price has also played an important role.
On 2016 the global production of cobalt (gold) Congo an important mine due to political crisis led to reduced supply of cobalt, resulting in chain store goods, leading to the overseas cobalt raw material prices.
China cobalt resource scarcity, cobalt reserves accounted for only 1.09% of the global total, most rely on imports, in 2016 China imported cobalt material equivalent cobalt metal volume of 50 thousand tons, of which 10 thousand tons of imported ore metal, 32 thousand and 600 tons of imports of intermediate goods. From the supply market, cobalt prices are expected strong, cobalt resources supply giant enterprises sell, grab cobalt may aggravate the phenomenon.
In addition, China's Cobalt industry after 5 years of integration and adjustment, and gradually get rid of the pattern alone, to the upstream and downstream linkage, state-owned + private enterprises, powerful combination of the development path. Some battery enterprises have shot overseas cobalt raw material market, go to the front of procurement resources, forcing other powerful battery companies quickly stand, seize the remaining resources of cobalt, cobalt prices rose further leveraging.
Cobalt price stability maintenance is the long-term development of the industrial chain
In the face of continued high cobalt prices, Xu Aidong mixed: the market has attracted a great deal of attention to the attention of the social resources of cobalt, and promote the spread of knowledge of cobalt, cobalt resources and related research and development progress. But stable prices are more conducive to the steady development of the industrial chain."
Xu Aidong introduction, the eve of the financial crisis in 2008, cobalt prices have hit a record 860 thousand yuan / ton, but after the last crazy, the valuation of all the way down, and even fell by $200 thousand / ton. At present, according to the main domestic and international enterprise production plan, is expected in 2017 the global refining cobalt production was 117 thousand tons, consumption of 113 thousand and 300 tons. The development of new energy vehicles demand for cobalt has caused all aspects of vigilance, the future price is easy to rise or fall.
In order to avoid the impact of fluctuations in the price of cobalt on the downstream side, the demand side can take alternative measures have almost been replaced by other resources, the existing cobalt consumption is basically rigid. New energy vehicles as a new industry in the rapid development of the cobalt price downturn, can withstand the skyrocketing price of cobalt remains to be seen. However, nickel hydride batteries in the case of hydrogen storage alloy cobalt to be vigilant, high cobalt prices or will accelerate the pace of cobalt reduction of three yuan material.
Learn from history, cobalt price control is imperative. Xu Aidong said that in addition to China's State Reserve Bureau of purchasing and storage behavior of price stability plays a certain role, the global resource recovery is also an important aspect. Its main application fields, such as high temperature alloy, carbide recovery system are very mature.
However, the rate of recovery depends on the price, especially for the cemented carbide and battery industry, due to the more dispersed users of such industries, the need to stimulate the price of resource enrichment. With the continued rise in the price of cobalt, some scattered in all corners of the world of cobalt containing materials have gradually floating